Despite record-breaking anti-Tory swings in Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome, as well as a protracted Labour campaign, the Conservatives have held on to Boris’s seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Thanks, in part, to some credible expectation management from CCHQ, it means an otherwise dire night for the Conservatives doesn’t look so bad, after punters, pundits and pollsters alike predicted the Conservatives would lose all three seats. It could be worse…

After a recount, the Conservatives won in Uxbridge by 495 votes, with a 6.9% swing to Labour – in his victory speech the new MP, Steve Tuckwell, thanked one person in particular:

“Sadiq Khan has lost Labour this election and we know it was his damaging and costly ULEZ policy that lost them this election.”

Over to you, Susan…

Elsewhere, results were catastrophic for the Conservatives. In Somerton, LibDem Sarah Dyke won by 11,008 votes in a seat which previously had a 19,000 Tory majority – it was a swing of 29%. Likewise, in Selby Keir Mather will take his seat as the Baby of the House, as Labour won their biggest ever by-election victory, overturning a 20,000 majority to themselves win by 4,161 – on a swing of 23.7%. Pollster John Curtice told the Today programme that Selby and Somerton were more indicative of a General Election. He added that the Tories are “in deep electoral trouble”.
The results in full were:

Selby and Ainsty

• Labour – 46.0% (+21.4)
• Conservative – 34.3% (-25.9)
• Green – 5.1% (+1.9)
• Yorkshire Party – 4.2% (+0.8)
• Reform UK – 3.7% (+3.7)

Somerton and Frome

• LibDem – 54.6% (+28.4)
• Conservative – 26.2% (-29.6)
• Green – 10.2% (+5.1)
• Reform UK – 3.4% (+3.4)
• Labour – 2.6% (-10.3)

Uxbridge and South Ruislip

• Conservative – 45.2% (-7.5)
• Labour – 43.6% (+5.9)
• Green – 2.9% (+0.6)
• Reclaim Party – 2.3% (+2.3)
• LibDem – 1.7% (-4.6)