Rishi Sunak, stop reading now. A new poll has found that the Conservatives face a crushing defeat in the upcoming Selby and Ainsty by-election. The poll, conducted by JL Partners, shows a 23 point swing from the Conservatives to Labour, with Labour on 41% to the Tories’ 29%. A reminder: the Conservatives currently hold the seat with 60% of the vote…

This isn’t the first constituency poll to paint a grim picture for the Conservatives. According to Opinium, Labour are also on course to gain Mid Bedfordshire – whenever Nadine Dorries actually gets round to resigning. It puts Labour on 28% to 24% for the Conservatives, which represents a 36 point decline in the Tory vote share. If the result does go that way, it would be the biggest by-election loss in history.