A new MRP poll from Focaldata for Best for Britain shows Labour could win a 140-seat majority at the next general election, taking 470 seats while the Conservatives get 123 seats and the SNP get 26. A landslide…

However, if Reform UK again stands aside for the Tories in key marginals, Labour would win 401 seats compared to the Tories’ 202. If that happens and undecided voters break for the Tories, Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament, on 316 seats with the Tories Labour’s 286. Best for Britain CEO Naomi Smith said this morning:

“Our analysis of that data is that actually Labour could more plausibly be looking at 370 seats, and even that might be at the high end that we’re predicting, with the Conservatives on 232… Neither of those scenarios has to happen independently of one another. They can both happen at the same time. And if they do, if a lot of those undecided voters break back to the Conservatives and we see Reform UK pulling candidates, then we’re back in hung Parliament territory.”

The data also shows Rishi is clawing back support after the Tories bottomed out during the Truss debacle. He’s seen as “competent” yet weak, while Starmer has a “grating” voice. John Curtice reckons the election is still up for grabs…