Rishi’s been down in Dover this morning, making some big claims to launch his small boots policy. Before Guido does his public service duty of independently verifying Rishi’s statistics, it’s worth reminding co-conspirators what the Prime Minister had to say:

“In the five months since I launched the plan, crossings are now down 20 per cent compared to last year. This is the first time, since this problem began, that arrivals between January and May have fallen compared to the year before”.

In 9,607 migrants were detected in May-June 2022, compared to 7,610 this year – a decrease of 20.7%. It’s the first time statistics have recorded a fall across this period. Unsurprisingly, sum-loving Sunak got his maths right…

However, it’s not all smooth sailing for Rishi’s small boats policy statistics. Migrant crossings did increase over two months, February and April, relative to last year. Moreover, Channel crossings in April and May were higher than they had been in the first three months of this year – when Rishi announced his pledges. Guido will let co-conspirators decide for themselves if the government is doing enough to “Stop the Boats”…

One positive sign is that no small boats crossings have been detected so far in June. It’s still early days.