Germany has formally entered recession, as the country experienced an economic contraction of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2023. This may come as a surprise to many in SW1 – after all, Rachel Reeves insisted “The UK is the only G7 country with negative growth this year”. Just weeks have passed and already that has been comprehensively debunked.

UK GDP growth in Q1 was 0.1%, underwhelming yet, despite Rachel’s claims, not negative. Meanwhile Germany’s was -0.3%. The IMF forecast Germany would grow by 0.1% whilst the UK would shrink by -0.3%. A timely reminder, if it was needed, to ignore the IMF’s reliably unreliable forecasts.

No doubt to the dismay of Labour’s attack team, the IMF’s revised forecast does look healthier for the UK, with growth set for 0.4%. Knowing the IMF, Guido hopes they’re still too pessimistic…