The International Monetary Fund has admitted it has, once again, underestimated the country’s economic growth, and now forecasts the UK will avoid recession this year. They claimed the UK economy would contract by 0.3%, the bottom of the G7 alongside Germany. Now that’s been upgraded to 0.4% growth over the year. 

Falling energy costs and improved business confidence have contributed to their revised data, although they hasten to add add that “the outlook for growth, while improving somewhat in recent months, remains subdued“. Not so subdued that the UK is now expected to outperform Germany, which is still forecast to contract by 0.1%…

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the revised figures were a “big upgrade”:

“It praises our childcare reforms, the Windsor framework and business investment incentives. If we stick to the plan, the IMF confirm our long-term growth prospects are stronger than in Germany.”

Since 2016 the IMF has consistently underestimated UK GDP growth… every single year.

While today’s figures are an improvement, Guido hopes they’re still far too pessimistic…