With just over a week to go before the local elections, the usual speculation over how the leaders will react to the results is doing the rounds in SW1. On the Labour side, there’s an increasing expectation that Starmer will reshuffle his front bench soon after ballots close. He last made big changes in November 2021 – an eon in today’s politics – and since then he has had more than enough time to judge who’s performing well, and who’s up for the chop. Once he moves, this will almost certainly be the team he takes to the public for the general election… 

Rachel Reeves isn’t going anywhere. As Shadow Chancellor, she is Starmer’s de facto deputy – his actual deputy, Angela Rayner, is kept at arm’s length so she can be the party’s attack dog – and his most trusted performer. If Labour wins in 2024, Reeves will be the Chancellor.

Question marks remain over Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy. While it was thought he would stay put, there’s gossip more recently that he may be shifted after all; he hasn’t performed as well as expected. Where he’d go isn’t so clear: his old job as Shadow Justice Secretary is currently held by Steve Reed. Reed would have to move too…

Which leads to the Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper. Briefings against Cooper have bubbled up in recent months, with the Mail on Sunday told that her position was “under threat” and she would be replaced by Steve Reed – speculation which is not being pushed by his people. Team Cooper denied it – of course they did – and pointed out how she’s one of the only Labour MPs with government experience. She is also undoubtedly effective in the chamber and previously on the Home Affairs Select Committee. Although if Starmer really plans to draft in more New Labour heavyweights at the next election her governmental experience is less needed…