Both the Times and the Telegraph report this morning that Number 10 are aiming for an autumn 2024 election, provisionally around October – November. Guido has heard the same in recent days, with the obvious logic being it gives Rishi more time to meet his priorities – mainly reducing inflation and stopping the boats – while also creating distance between his premiership and his predecessors’. Labour’s favourite attack line, “the Tories crashed the economy”, will be less impact if inflation is down and growth is up – so the longer the better…

The mood amongst Tory MPs has shifted in the last few weeks. Rather than assuming the party is in an irreversible death spiral, there is hope that by late next year, the narrative will have changed just enough that they could pull out a shock victory. Isaac Levido told the Cabinet in January that they have still have a “narrow path” to victory if they stick to a solid Conservative message. The polls are turning – slowly…