The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published the latest edition of its World Economic Outlook, and predicts the UK will have the slowest growth of any major country this year, shrinking by 0.3% in 2023 and growing by 1% in 2024 – which is a small upgrade on their previous forecast. Germany is the only other G7 country the IMF expects to see negative growth this year.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said this afternoon:

“Thanks to the steps we have taken, the OBR says the UK will avoid recession, and our IMF growth forecasts have been upgraded by more than any other G7 country. The IMF now say we are on the right track for economic growth. By sticking to the plan we will more than halve inflation this year, easing the pressure on everyone.”

As always, it is worth bearing in mind just how wrong the IMF has been in the past: since 2016 the IMF has consistently underestimated UK GDP growth… every single year.

Their word is not gospel…

Read the IMF’s full forecast below: