As of this morning, it’s still a mixed picture on the potential Tory rebellion over the Windsor Framework. The European Research Group are meeting at 10.30 to hear the report of its ‘star chamber’, led by Sir Bill Cash, which will outline the chamber’s final judgement on the deal. According to reports overnight, Cash is expected to say the Stormont Brake – the element MPs will debate on Wednesday – is “unusable” in practice, and the Group shouldn’t support it. Tory MPs speaking to Guido say they nonetheless expect the Tory rebellion to be “soft“, and “they’ll have to have uncovered something pretty bad for a lot of people to vote against it”. The Telegraph has heard similarly, with one MP saying the group were “genuinely torn”…

The first Tory out the gates declaring their opposition this morning is Sir James Duddridge, who describes the deal as a “betrayal of Brexit” and vows to “absolutely vote against” it. The DUP decision to oppose it has put the wind in his sails. The Express, meanwhile, is more certain the ERG “is likely to side with the DUP” and push the rebellion figures higher. Although even if more MPs ultimately do follow Duddridge and the DUP, Starmer’s support means it’s incredibly unlikely to sink the deal entirely. It’s also worth keeping an eye on abstentions rather than outright opposition, as with the Illegal Migrant Bill earlier this month. Expect a press conference from the ERG this morning after their meeting, with Chris Heaton-Harris also up in front of Cash and the European Scrutiny Committee this afternoon. A busy day in SW1 – get the popcorn…