There had been a lot of speculation from the usual suspects that Boris would not fight his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat; the broadsheet conspiracy theorists’ favourite chicken run was to Nadine Dorries’ constituency in Bedford, which will become vacant when she goes to the Lords. Guido always expected him to fight Uxbridge with the attitude that he would go down fighting if the Tories are put to a rout at the next election. The polls suggest the odds are against Boris…

Labour’s Danny Beales shouldn’t be complacent about his forecasted 16 percentage point lead. Boris has star power, campaigns like no one else in British politics and is a lucky general. The boundary changes in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat are worth a welcome thousand or so extra votes. The above forecast is based on a uniform national swing. Boris, given a chance, will defy that swing. No one has gotten rich betting against Boris.

Next week Boris is up before Harriet Harman’s kangaroo court Privileges Committee to give evidence. On Wednesday she will seek to prove what was in his mind when he said in Parliament that he was advised that “all guidance was followed in No. 10” and “I have been repeatedly assured since these allegations emerged that there was no party and that no Covid rules were broken”. Harman wants to prove that he knew this – in the light of the subsequent fixed penalties issued – was untrue. If a majority on the committee believe that they can read his mind and that he was knowingly lying they might have a chance to suspend him from Parliament for 10 sitting days, triggering a petition under the Recall of MPs Act 2015. That is self-evidently what Harriet Harman wants to do – so ask yourself why? Is it because they fear Boris could come back and beat them again…