New polling from Lord Ashcroft makes grim reading for Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP. It finds that just 37% of Scottish voters now support independence, with 48% in opposition. When undecideds are excluded, that’s a 12% lead against independence.

This comes in the context of Scotland’s broadly unpopular gender recognition bill. Just 29% support the bill, with 54% opposed. There is also evidence this is harming the SNP’s standing: voters rank the NHS and the economy as the most important issues facing Scotland. Meanwhile, they recognise the SNP is prioritising independence and gender reform.