As Rishi Sunak delivered his first keynote speech of the new year, outlining five headline pledges, Guido was overcome with a sense of déjà vu. Rishi pledged to cut inflation in half this year. According to the OBR’s forecasts, published alongside his own government’s budget, inflation was already set to fall from 11.1% to 3.8% – a fall of two thirds. His shiny new target is less ambitious than expected…

What’s more, the Prime Minister emphasised his determination to introduce “laws to stop small boats”. Ignoring the fact Rishi previously announced this a month ago, the Government had already made channel crossings a criminal offence last year. The Nationality and Borders Act received royal assent in 2022, as the government claimed it would deter illegal crossings “breaking the business model of people-smuggling networks”. Co-conspirators will be aware it didn’t have the desired effect, as the government has enforced just 0.3% cases. Why should we believe this time will be any different?