Using the figures we have as of Sunday evening – Rishi on 153, Boris on 76, and Penny on 28 – we have 72% of MPs having made an indication. Is that enough to base an inference upon? Let’s try…

The known preference percentages break down as below:

Apply those percentages to the unknown 100 MPs we get

• Rishi 153 + 60 = 213
• Boris 76 + 30  = 106
• Penny 28 + 11 = 39

Allowing for rounding errors and switchers that is in the “close to call” territory for Boris. One source in the Rishi camp on the other hand told Guido that he thought there were “too many headbangers” undeclared and Boris would pass the threshold. We’ll know soon enough…