The first polls to be conducted following Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini budget have been published, with both YouGov and findoutnow giving Labour a 17 point lead. The headline numbers are bad enough for Liz, even without the fact it marked a 9% increase on YouGov’s previous poll. Naturally the polls have not been well received on the Conservative backbenches. Backbenchers fear this is the start of a trend…

The deeper story isn’t so catastrophic for the Conservatives. Chris Curtis points out that the number of Con-Lab switchers was not statistically significant. This is important as switchers are more likely to stick around with new affiliations when an election comes round. Deltapoll also tells a less dramatic story, putting Labour gains at a more modest 3%, leaving them on 44% to the Conservatives’ 31% – still a double digit 13 point gap. Not a great prelude to their party conference for the Tories next week…

UPDATE: A Redfield & Wilton poll this afternoon gives Labour their third 17 point lead over the Tories in just a week. Oh dear…

UPDATE II: Second YouGov poll for The Times gives Labour a 33 point lead over the Tories, with an eight point swing to Starmer after the emergency budget and Labour conference. Ouch…