Opinium Was Most Accurate Tory Leadership Pollster

Opinium has once again won the crown for most accurate poll during the Tory leadership election. After winning the same accolade at the 2019 election, Opinium were closest to the final result. They add the usual caveats that polling political parties is much trickier than the general public…

All the polls over-stated Liz versus Rishi, Guido reckons the final placing based on their last calls is this:

  1. Opinium – 7.3 variance
  2. TechneUK – 13.3 variance
  3. YouGov – 17.3 variance
  4. ConHome – 21.3 variance

Liz winning by 14.7 points is decent, though less than the 30-point lead some earlier polls pointed to. Asked whether they reckon the polls were always off, or whether there was a last-minute improvement to Rishi’s numbers, a Team Rishi source said they don’t know, though the fact the first YouGov poll ended up being 15 points off the actual result left them satisfied they ran a decent campaign. Let the spinning commence in earnest…

mdi-tag-outline Conservative Home Data Guido Opinium Polls Techne Tory Leadership 2022 YouGov
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