The breaking news this evening is a new YouGov poll that has Liz set to thrash Rishi by 62% to 38%. Not only is this a massive lead at the start of the campaign, it’s actually grown by four points since they last polled members two days ago. When was the last time the front-runner at the start of the membership portion of the Tory leadership election didn’t end up winning?

• Out of the gates with a flying start. A big, albeit increasingly typical, Mail splash promising to hold an emergency budget if elected
• Tonight’s YouGov poll sees her beat Rishi in all-but-one groups (guess which), including all age groups, both genders and Leave voters.
• She pledges to push through immediate tax cuts to ease the cost of living and encourage enterprise
• Says the economy’s been managed wrong for the last 20 years, and hasn’t delivered for people
• Has come out with a new policy to allow a person taking time off work to care for a relative to transfer the whole of their tax-free personal allowance to a working member of the household – saving couples up to £2,514 a year
• Kicked off her campaign in Peterborough – where Boris launched his in 2019. Visited a school where one child said “this is so awkward”. Joked to a child she couldn’t fire the Lobby. During her pool clip, a child threw a toy at her.

• Today Programme interview saw her perform strongly. Said she had been “wrong” to back Remain in 2016 and slapped down claims no economists back her economic argument, citing Patrick Minford.
• Claimed her £30 billion or more tax cuts won’t cause inflation to rise

• Finished last night quite well, with an endorsement from both The Times and… Arron Banks
• Published a typically Americanised video of him ‘discovering’ the 1922 results, though notably jumped for joy when he heard he’d be facing Truss, not Penny – rather than when his own figures were declared. There’s a suggestion this video may have broken rules about use of the parliamentary estate for non-MP duties…
• Tonight’s YouGov poll sees him win in only one category: Tory Remainers.
• Members think he’ll be a weaker leader than Liz Truss (50% to 62%)
• Members are much less likely to believe Rishi’s telling the truth, with 40% saying they can’t trust him to just 18% for Liz
• Reports he won’t deliver any tax cuts until the Autumn of 2023
• Wrote an op-ed in The Times that said the word “Thatcherite” four times in two sentences: “My values are Thatcherite. I believe in hard work, family and integrity. I am a Thatcherite, I am running as a Thatcherite and I will govern as a Thatcherite.”

Bookies Odds (Previous in Brackets):

• Liz Truss 4/7 (8/15)
• Rishi Sunak 5/4 (11/8)