Campaign Update: Day 12

Tom Tugendhat is out of the running. Whilst tonight’s leadership vote-off is unsurprising in that sense, the way the votes have gone for the remaining candidates is much more interesting.

Penny has gone down one vote, totally stalling. While she still leads Liz Truss, this trajectory will kill her momentum. Kemi has done very well; gaining nine backers to Truss’s seven. While tonight’s result in terms of eliminating Tugendhat may have been predictable, the remaining results make the final two more uncertain than ever. Though Rishi is now guaranteed a space in the final two…

  • Came into today strongly after polling very well in both Friday night and Sunday night’s leadership debates
  • Pulled out of tomorrow’s Sky News debate along with Liz Truss
  • Did well in tonight’s result, gaining 14 backers – the most of any contestant.
  • Certain now to make the final two

  • A very bad result in the vote off, going down by one
  • Has come under yet more relentless attacks over trans issues
  • Attacked by leftie press over Brexit Turkey claims, despite it being a matter of opinion

  • Did OK in the run-off, though faced tough competition from Kemi Badenoch
  • Underperformed in the vote-off, rising by just seven MPs despite Suella Braverman freeing up 27 backers
  • Backers say she’s still on course to beat Penny as she’s growing ‘steadily and consistently’ versus Penny stalling in support

  • Did very well in tonight’s vote, beating Liz’s (7) increase in backers, up 9 to 58
  • Makes the next stage even more unpredictable
  • Weekend debate performances increased support amongst Tory members

  • Eliminated

Bookies Odds (Previous in Brackets):

  • Rishi Sunak 10/11 (9/4) ⬆️
  • Liz Truss 2/1 (9/4) ⬆️
  • Penny Mordaunt: 4/1 (evens) ⬇️
  • Kemi Badenoch: 14/1 (25/1) ⬇️
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