With another confirmed no confidence letter submitted this afternoon, and a very unhappy statement from veteran big hitter Andrea Leadsom this morning, yesterday’s hack speculation of an impending leadership vote is reaching new heights. The Guardian’s Jessica Elgot’s count has the numbers standing at 46 MPs who have “either confirmed they have written a letter, called for the PM to resign or suggested they would consider their position in same circumstances”. That doesn’t include the two MPs who told Guido in confidence their letters were with Brady back in February…

Amid this fevered recess excitement, word reaches ITV’s Paul Brand that Tory MPs now hear the PM has “begun calling his critics, hinting at the prospect of promotion and asking in return that they ‘stay with me’“.

Word among Conservative MPs is that Boris Johnson has begun calling his critics, hinting at the prospect of promotion and asking in return that they 'stay with me'. Clearly No 10 feel the threat of a confidence vote if those kind of approaches are being made.

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) May 31, 2022

Does this hint at a potential reshuffle? Guido was the first outlet to accurately report plans for a February reshuffle at the start of the year, with his same source saying there would be a further, more substantive, reshuffle after the Sue Gray report was published in full. This was then followed up in The Times that month, which reported the mini-reshuffle was merely “defensive” and the PM wants a bigger reshuffle in the summer to prepare for the next election.

When asked about any word on those plans for the last couple of weeks, however, those same sources seem to have gone cold. Multiple Boris allies tell Guido they’ve now heard nothing, though one suggested it’d be better to get it over and done with before the Summer recess if it is going to happen. In a similar vein, plans for ministerial hiring and firing haven’t been raised at any of No. 10’s morning meetings…