Local Election Update: Labour Failing to Make Up Ground Outside London

At the time of going to pixel, 146 of 200 councils have declared their results. The Tories are down by 260 seats, Labour is up by 158, and the LibDems are up by 143. The Tories’ losses at present don’t present a splitting migraine for Boris, given that using their much hyped MRP modelling Electoral Calculus – not CCHQ as the Labour-supporting press were claiming – predicted an 800 seat loss. A 500 seat loss would have been genuinely bad, 800 disastrous.

The crucial point, however, is where the Tories’ vote losses are concentrated. Labour has gained 68 seats in London, with the Tories losing 83, and the LibDems gaining 15. Outside London it’s a different story: Labour has gained 114 seats, whereas the LibDems have picked up 126 and the Greens 45. This is a better day for the LibDems and the Greens in England than it is for Labour.

To Guido’s surprise the LibDems are making significant inroads in the South East and South West. This will naturally scare old-school home county Tories who fear losing their seats, though should remember it’s classic protest vote stuff. Guido reckons CCHQ is much happier to see Tory votes temporarily siphoned off to protest parties like the LibDems and Greens than Labour, as it indicates they’re not sold on Starmer and therefore potentially retrievable at the next election. Sill lots to play for as we head into the evening – Guido won’t be foolish enough to make any predictions…

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mdi-timer May 6 2022 @ 16:55 mdi-share-variant mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-printer
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