Despite all the chaos and division of the last two months, Labour are just four points ahead in the latest poll out this morning. The Tories have bottomed out on 34% to Labour’s 38%. The LibDems are on 11% and the Greens on 7%. It’s interesting to note with this poll that Kantar don’t offer a ‘Don’t know’ option, meaning it more accurately shows how, when pushed, Tory voters are sticking with the party rather than switching to Labour.

“In our view it is unlikely that such a large proportion of Conservative 2019 voters would choose not to vote in the next General Election, or that they will turn out at a lower rate than 2019 Labour voters.

For context, analysis of the 2019 post-election British Election Study shows that c.90% of both 2017 Conservative voters and 2017 Labour voters went on to vote in the 2019 General Election. In contrast, in our poll, we see no difference in such survival rates between 2019 Conservative and Labour voters. This, on its own, means a smaller Labour lead than other pollsters are showing.”

While we await Gray’s report, it gives Tory MPs something to ponder with more rational heads…