Can Labour Celebrate Latest Polls?

A poll out last night put Labour on a quite impressive six points ahead of the Tories, with the Britain Elects poll tracker now having Labour squeak past the Tories’ average by 0.3%. 16 out of the last 24 polls put Labour ahead.

In light of last night’s poll some data geeks are warning Southside and LOTO to put away the champagne. Digging into the poll figures we can see that while the Tories have collapsed, 25% of 2019 Tory voters are now ‘don’t know’, a position that remains a rejection of Labour and remains fertile ground for Boris and the government to try winning back between now and 2024. At least this is the pessimistic interpretation of the New Statesman’s Ben Walker.

On the other hand, Opinium’s Chris Curtis notes whilst it is correct to point out the high switches from Conservative to ‘Don’t Know’, there are increasing number of polls showing substantial switches from Conservative to Labour. Survation’s last poll puts this latter figure at 10%, just shy of the 11% Labour to Tory switchers at the 2019 election. Either way, CCHQ won’t have much to celebrate this Christmas…

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