SAGE Modelling Proven Wrong, Real World Data Beats Most Optimistic Forecast

Now midway through November, almost 5 months sine the July 19 “freedom day”, we can review whether or not it has been the disaster SAGE doom-mongers predicted it would be. According to the SAGE modelling published on 14 September, in a worst case scenario the UK could expect well over 6,000 hospitalisations per day throughout the month of October. In SAGE’s best case scenario Britain could expect around 1,700 hospitalisations per day by November 2. The central forecast was for some 4,300 hospitalisations a day by the start of November.

Real data has completely disproven the gloom and doom prophesies relayed to the public by SAGE and the government. On November 2 just over 1,000 people were admitted to hospital with Covid-19. That is below the most optimistic scenario outlined, and almost 80% below their central forecast scenario. On top of that new ONS data shows a clear downward trend in the number of cases and hospitalisations. With new therapeutic treatments coming to treat Covid optimists are even more confident. The doomsters have been proven comprehensively wrong, again.

mdi-tag-outline Covid-19 SAGE
mdi-account-multiple-outline Neil Ferguson
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