According to election experts John Curtice, Stephen Fisher and Patrick English, the Brexit Party may have significantly cut the scale of Boris’s 2019 victory by standing candidates in the election. By modelling the behaviour of Labour Leavers elsewhere, they argue that in the absence of a Brexit party candidate, 70% would likely have turned to the Tories and 30% would have stuck with Labour, potentially winning the Tories 25 more seats. It is an interesting contention – if you accept the premise. Arguably we saw this in play during the Hartlepool by-election…

Though the Brexit Party may have unintentionally helped Labour, Farage unilaterally chose not to field candidates in seats with incumbent Tory MPs, resulting in Iain Duncan Smith and Dominic Raab clinging on where they otherwise wouldn’t have. Curtice, Fisher and English’s book, The British General Election of 2019, was published yesterday.