It will have been nigh on impossible for co-conspirators not to have already seen last night’s bombshell YouGov poll that sees the Tories end their 149 consecutive lead over Labour, slipping back five points down to 33% versus Labour’s 35%. Dowden unsurprisingly put on a brave face, saying “polls go up, they go down”. How much further down is the main question…

The Tories’ poll hit should come as no surprise to anyone with at least a foot in the real world. Hypothetical polls of the public’s desire to be taxed more to fund public services very quickly give way when the reality of taxes hit.

Reform will be capitalising on the desire of Tory voters for a non-Labour-lite, free-market party. Nearly one in ten Tory voters have switched to Reform UK according to this poll, doubling the party’s poll rating. A Reform UK spokesperson tells Guido:

“Who knew that wacking taxes up for red wall workers while simultaneously unrolling a red carpet on every beach in Kent and Sussex and threatening civil liberties like a drunken traffic warden could hurt the Tories polling figures. Seriously who could have guessed it?”

Meanwhile it’s not just the polls that see the Tories in the mud. Guido learns that even a Tory bigwig fundraiser on Wednesday, at Mayfair’s Wallace Collection, couldn’t get hands reaching into pockets for the party, despite cajoling from both Boris and Rishi. Who knew Tory donors weren’t keen on an enormous tax hike?