The BBC are predicting the SNP will now fall two seats short of an overall majority in Holyrood – the exact same result they saw in 2016 – in a blow to Sturgeon’s ability to claim a mandate for a second independence referendum. The party’s hopes relied on winning the key marginal seat of Tory-held Aberdeen West, however the Conservatives managed to increase their majority from 900 to 3000. The BBC projection in full:

The BBC is projecting:

SNP 63
Conservative 31
Labour 22
Liberal Democrat 4
Greens 9

Although SNP short of majority, this would be biggest pro-independence group at Holyroodhttps://t.co/avQgPdiZ1j

— Nick Eardley (@nickeardleybbc) May 8, 2021

Now the SNP will have to point to the overtly-pro-independence Green party seats, which push the anti-UK votes over the line in Holyrood…