Survation Says Labour’s Heading for Hartlepool Disaster

A new poll released by Survation last night has the Conservatives on track to win in the Hartlepool by-election by a comfortable margin, with the Tories currently sitting at 49% of the vote versus Labour’s 42%. A 20% increase for the Tories since the 2019 general election…

Even worse for Starmer is that the same poll showed his popularity amongst Hartlepool voters was half that of Boris Johnson’s, at just 24% compared to 49%. It looks like the collapse of the Brexit Party / Reform UK (which took 26% of the vote in 2019, and now polls at 1%) has only benefitted the Tories. So much for rebuilding the Red Wall…

A Tory source – expectedly – emphasises to Guido that “The only poll that matters is the one on the 6th of May.”

Of course, the poll’s sample size of 502 magnifies the chances of polling error and leaves plenty of room for Labour to close the gap by May 6. Although reports that Labour expects to lose suggests expectations management rather than Labour throwing in the towel…

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