Imperial Modelling: Third Covid Wave Will See Daily Deaths Stay Below 100

New modelling from Imperial College London suggests daily Covid deaths should stay below 100, even in any post-unlocking third wave. While, they say, an increase in hospital admissions and deaths after June is “highly likely”, so long as there is very high vaccine uptake, no waning immunity and no new escaped variant, they predict deaths will remain very limited despite a return to mostly-normality. Provided you’ve been issued your Covid papers…

The Imperial modelling stands in contrast to that from the London School of Hygiene, which last night made headlines predicting that completely lifting restrictions in June could lead to “a larger surge of cases and deaths comparable to that seen during the first wave.” While LSHTM admit this is based on “pessimistic assumptions”, they take the biscuit when claiming bed occupancy rates could hit 30,000 by the late summer. Bizarrely, this is off the back of assumptions that the vaccine’s only 31% effective in reducing transmission, despite studies showing at least 67% reductions from just one dose…

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