Worrying reading for Labour’s local election campaign was circulating among party decision makers last week. Documents obtained by Guido reveal that the party is worried it has unstable support from two large social groups driving post-referendum electoral politics. Both social conservatives and social liberals – leaving not much room in between to scoop up votes…
Explaining that “The referendum catalysed Values divisions“, which “formed a new dominant electoral coalition for the Conservative Party” – a briefing delivered by key Starmer-allied group The Campaign Company explains a broad voter group identified as “settlers” who are ‘security-driven’, ‘socially conservative’, with a ‘desire to belong’ have heavily shifted Conservative. While that is not new knowledge, the briefing goes on to warn that “Labour does not have an equivalent strength with socially liberal voters” – citing a group termed ‘Pioneers’ who are ‘socially liberal and socially-conscious’, ‘post materialistic’, and driven by ‘fairness and equality’. It concluded by saying one of the key challenges for the party is being to not only reduce the deficit with socially conservative voters, but also “pull back socially-conscious voters from smaller parties”…
The Campaign Company, founded by Labour’s General Secretary David Evans, provided original research and a report that became the basis for a further document – LGA Labour recommendations for messaging in the local elections. The document will provide ammunition to the left of the Labour Party, which has warned chasing Tory voters drives left flank of the party away to more minor parties…
Happy reading for the Tories will be the conclusion that while there has been a little movement around the edges, “the structure of 2019 voter coalitions has held shape.”:
“… the last year has not fundamentally re-set the terms but ground has been laid that, with effective messaging, can expand Labour’s support in the local elections. Eg. services, council tax, development, outsourcing.”
The final conclusion of the report reflects that ultimately the elections will be a game of turnout. Above messaging, strategy, and campaign techniques, “Postal vote organisation should be a top priority of every campaign.” Classic, wonder how much they charged for that insight?
