One year ago today, model and businesswoman Caprice was widely mocked on Twitter as well as by Dr Sarah Jarvis on the Jeremy Vine show, advocating mask wearing and an East Asian style lockdown. Just two days before Caprice’s prescient appearance, SAGE minutes concluded that:
“SAGE was unanimous that measures seeking to completely suppress spread of Covid19 will cause a second peak. SAGE advises that it is a near certainty that countries such as China, where heavy suppression is underway, will experience a second peak once measures are relaxed.”
Groupthink and dismissal from the scientists delayed effective action, meaning when the lockdown came it was longer and harsher than the early action taken in much of Asia. As superforecaster Jonathan Kitson wrote last year – Caprice should be on SAGE.