Despite the Government insisting its unlocking timetable is based on “data not dates”, official messaging from Number 10 now seems obsessed with dates to the exclusion of data. Mark Harper has poured through the SPI-M-O modelling the Government relied upon to set out its timetable, and found some concerning results. The SPI-M-O document is dated 7 February – weeks before more positive data became known about vaccine rollout and efficacy…
The assumptions underlying the unlocking timetable are based on far more pessimistic forecasts and assumptions than real world data is beginning to show:
By almost all indications, the positive effect of vaccines is better than the Government’s assumptions had assumed. It is reasonable to delay dates if some unforeseen supply issue delays the programme. Surely logic follows that if after the first five week review data is better than expected, things can be brought forward. The Government should listen to its scientists and follow the data, not dates…