There’s lots of media panic this morning about the publication of Imperial College and IPSOS MORI’s eighth report of REACT – the largest Covid monitoring survey in the UK. Compared to the previous survey in early December, prevalence of Covid was far higher – it had increased by 50% from 0.91% in early December to 1.58%, or 158 per 10,000 infected. Yet there has been a month in between with no data…

This was the largest such gap since the survey began, meaning there is a very real possibility that the survey missed the peak over December, and infections have started to fall after all. As the study report itself says…

“In round 8a, we found… the highest prevalence recorded by REACT-1 since it started in May 2020… Since there was a gap of over one month from the end of round 7b on 3rd December 2020 to beginning of round 8a on 6th January 2021 we may have missed a peak in prevalence during the intervening period. Using a constant growth model, we found no strong evidence for either growth or decay averaged across the period of round”

Indeed the study is at odds with other data such as positivity rates and new cases. Guido awaits the ONS Infection Survey tomorrow for more clarity…