A leaked COBR briefing document obtained by Guido has revealed that the Government is preparing for a higher level of Hong Kong British National Overseas passport holders escaping Communist rule and moving to Britain than was initially expected, in the wake of the clampdown following the implementation of the Hong Kong National Security Law. In July, the Foreign Office estimated that 200,000 would move from Hong Kong to the UK. New data derived from job websites, property websites, and BN(O) passport applications has led the Government to dramatically raise their initial estimate.
In an official sensitive briefing last Wednesday, prepared by COBR National Security Watchkeepers, they said:
“Since the Foreign Office estimate was made, China and the Hong Kong government have rapidly moved to implement severe restrictions on freedoms in Hong Kong. The rapid rise in the issue of BN(O) passport since June, and views of UK-based property, job, and information websites, can be seen as a clear indication that many more BN(O)s are intending to emigrate to the UK than were initially predicted by the Foreign Office.”
In February, there were 349,881 BN(O) passport holders in Hong Kong. By August 2020, there were over 400,000 live passports in circulation and over 200,000 passport applications waiting to be processed. The COBR briefing sets out that
“If the level of applications continues to rise at the current rate, the Home Office predicts the number of BN(O) passport holders is likely to rise to 733,000 by the end of 2020, marking a rise of over 1000% [sic] since February”
The 1000% increase is a typo and it actually is an 110% increase by Guido’s calculation. Guido hears the China Research Group will be putting out a major new paper next week…