The ONS confirmed what we all knew already today, that the UK is in recession. New GDP figures show the two consecutive quarters of economic decline required to meet the technical definition of recession. Given that a strict lockdown came about towards the end of Q1, this was to be expected. What is perhaps more interesting is the speed of the recovery, which began as soon as Government-imposed restrictions began to be eased.

GDP rose by a faster-than-expected 8.7% month on month in June, raising hopes of that fabled V shaped recovery. Economist Julian Jessop has described the beginning of the bounce back in June as “confirming that a decent recovery has begun.” Despite this, the numbers still show that the UK economy is now 17.2% smaller than it was in February. Still a long way to go…

Labour are today crowing that Q2’s GDP drop is harsher than European countries, although this ignores the reality that the UK’s Q1 drop was a lot less severe. Put together the results are still dire, just slightly less dire than Spain and not so out of line with France and Italy.