The first batch of polls are out and they do not make good reading for Downing Street. Boris now has a negative rating of -1% according to Savanta, who have him well behind Starmer (+12%). Boris has taken a significant hit, falling from +19% just four days ago to -1% today. Is this a Cummings caused temporary blip or a permanent state of affairs remains to be seen.

ComRes has overall support falling by 16 points this weekend to -2% due to the Cummings affair. At the start of the month they enjoyed 35% backing…

Cummings told reporters he “doesn’t care“ how his lockdown travel looks; Boris does on the other hand have to care about popularity. Those in Downing Street with long memories will recall that on a Bank holiday weekend in 2009, the then PM’s special adviser Damian McBride’s misbehaviour saw Labour drop 9% points that weekend. The Tories broke through the 40% ceiling in the polls and went on to win the next election…