The excess deaths figures from big cities make grim reading. As hard as London has been hit, New York, Madrid and Bergamo of course have been hit harder. Stockholm, which never implemented a lock down, less so. That might be because it is less densely populated and it may be because other causes of death did not spike. We will have to wait for the analysis.

The figures show that outside Asia, even the rich countries were not as well prepared, perhaps because of having been spared the worst of SARS. The inevitable official inquiry will ask why in an age of global travel were SAGE, the NHS and parts of the Whitehall machine so focused on preparing for a flu pandemic. Given a pandemic of some kind was long foreseen, some will be found wanting and new plans will be put in place. Expect a long-term emphasis by government on strategic manufacturing supplies being prioritised for domestic production. Just as happened in New York City after 9/11, we will almost certainly see an increasing shift out of cities by businesses and households that can…