Data Scientists Predict UK Virus First Wave Over End of May

Based on publicly available data, scientists from the Singapore University of Technology and Design’s Data-Driven Innovation Lab are predicting the course of COVID-19 developments as a complement to monitoring confirmed cases. They are forecasting that the UK’s first wave will, in this instance, see 97% of the total expected epidemic cases realised by May 17 and 99% by May 30. According to their model the UK was a week behind Italy, 2 weeks behind Germany and a day in front of the USA

*Their SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model is regressed with data from different countries to estimate the pandemic life cycle curves and predict when the pandemic might end in respective countries and the world, with codes from Milan Batista and data from Our World in Data. Given the rapidly changing situations, the predictive monitors are updated daily with the latest data. Motivation, theory, method, and caution are in this paper.

mdi-tag-outline Coronavirus Data Journalism
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