When the Government extended the lockdown a week and a half ago, it set out five tests to be met in order to begin to lift the lid on the restrictions. Now for the first time the briefing is being led by those tests. Looking at the data trends published by the Government, Guido guesstimates the five tests stand at:

1. The capacity of the NHS has not been breached.✅
2. Daily deaths look to be past their peak, on a consistent, although shallow, fall. ✅
3.  Rate of infection decreased to manageable levels.❓ [R is below 1, but is that enough?]
4. Testing and PPE supply meeting demand. ❌
5. Confident any adjustments will not risk a second peak. ❌

The Government’s graphs show the hospitalisation peak appears to have passed:

And it’s a similar picture for critical care beds…

The daily death trend is heading down, although on a shallower path than the incline.

There is light at the end of the tunnel…