Imperial Predicts NHS Demand will be “Within Capacity”

Imperial College London’s Neil Ferguson has released new findings from his modelling that show hospitals are likely to be “within capacity” following the country’s actions over the last week. Can we begin to breathe a sigh of relief?

The Times’ Chris Smyth explains Ferguson’s findings, namely:

  • Peak demand on ICU is expected in 2.5-3 weeks, and will then decline
  • Imperial estimates post-lockdown fatalities to reach 20,000, though “it could be substantially lower than that”
  • Only “large scale testing and contact tracing” will bring an end to the lockdown

The NHS capacity prediction has been based on the recently-seen NHS ICU surge and Monday’s lockdown. Guido awaits Piers’ thoughts…

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mdi-account-multiple-outline Neil Ferguson
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