After some 64,000 cases, Italy looks finally to be succeeding in “bending the arc” and passing the peak. For the second consecutive day, new recorded cases are lower than the day before. Today’s death toll was 601, yesterday was 651 and the day before was 793. If this trend continues the daily death toll could be minimal within 2 weeks…

UPDATE: Italy’s Civil Protection Agency chief, Angelo Borrelli, is reported as saying that “a ratio of one certified case out of every ten is credible in his country.” This would bring the estimated number of coronavirus cases in Italy closer to 640,000 rather than the confirmed number of 63,927 of which 6,077 have died. Less than 1%.

UPDATE II: Italian authorities have sadly just announced 743 new deaths, higher again than in the last two days  The growth rate of positive cases is in single digits for a second consecutive day (+8.2%). The growth rate of new patients admitted to hospitals and ICUs (~+6%) is also coming down. Hopefully the downward trend will re-assert itself.