The final Tory poll leads of this election from each pollster came in last night, ranging from hung parliament territory (five points) to a landslide majority (thirteen points). Each pollster’s results are as follows…
- Savanta ComRes 5pts
- ICM 6pts
- Panelbase 9pts
- YouGov 9pts
- BMG 9pts
- Deltapoll 10pts
- NPC 10pts
- Survation 11pts
- Mori 11pts
- Opinium 12pts
- Kantar 12pts
- Qriously 13pts
That makes for an average lead of 9.76%.
By comparison, this was the spread of polls by the end of the 2017 campaign:
- Qriously -2pts
- Survation 1pts
- Surveymonkey 4pts
- Kantar 5pts
- Opinium 7pts
- YouGov 7pts
- Panelbase 8pts
- Mori 8pts
- ComRes 10pts
- ICM 12pts
- BMG 13pts
Meaning that on the eve of election last time around, the average Tory lead was 6.64%.
In reality, the results came in with a Tory lead of just 2.4%, 64% lower than the average. If the percentage difference is the same between polls and reality this time, it will mean an eventual Tory lead of 3.5%. Hung Parliament territory…
