How do the Polls Compare to Last Time? mdi-fullscreen

The final Tory poll leads of this election from each pollster came in last night, ranging from hung parliament territory (five points) to a landslide majority (thirteen points). Each pollster’s results are as follows…

  • Savanta ComRes 5pts
  • ICM 6pts
  • Panelbase 9pts
  • YouGov 9pts
  • BMG 9pts
  • Deltapoll 10pts
  • NPC 10pts
  • Survation 11pts
  • Mori 11pts
  • Opinium 12pts
  • Kantar 12pts
  • Qriously 13pts

That makes for an average lead of 9.76%.

By comparison, this was the spread of polls by the end of the 2017 campaign:

  • Qriously -2pts
  • Survation 1pts
  • Surveymonkey 4pts
  • Kantar 5pts
  • Opinium 7pts
  • YouGov 7pts
  • Panelbase 8pts
  • Mori 8pts
  • ComRes 10pts
  • ICM 12pts
  • BMG 13pts

Meaning that on the eve of election last time around, the average Tory lead was 6.64%.

In reality, the results came in with a Tory lead of just 2.4%, 64% lower than the average. If the percentage difference is the same between polls and reality this time, it will mean an eventual Tory lead of 3.5%. Hung Parliament territory…

Hat-Tip: Sam Freedman
mdi-tag-outline Data Guido Election 2019
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