How do the Polls Compare to Last Time?

The final Tory poll leads of this election from each pollster came in last night, ranging from hung parliament territory (five points) to a landslide majority (thirteen points). Each pollster’s results are as follows…

  • Savanta ComRes 5pts
  • ICM 6pts
  • Panelbase 9pts
  • YouGov 9pts
  • BMG 9pts
  • Deltapoll 10pts
  • NPC 10pts
  • Survation 11pts
  • Mori 11pts
  • Opinium 12pts
  • Kantar 12pts
  • Qriously 13pts

That makes for an average lead of 9.76%.

By comparison, this was the spread of polls by the end of the 2017 campaign:

  • Qriously -2pts
  • Survation 1pts
  • Surveymonkey 4pts
  • Kantar 5pts
  • Opinium 7pts
  • YouGov 7pts
  • Panelbase 8pts
  • Mori 8pts
  • ComRes 10pts
  • ICM 12pts
  • BMG 13pts

Meaning that on the eve of election last time around, the average Tory lead was 6.64%.

In reality, the results came in with a Tory lead of just 2.4%, 64% lower than the average. If the percentage difference is the same between polls and reality this time, it will mean an eventual Tory lead of 3.5%. Hung Parliament territory…

Hat-Tip: Sam Freedman
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