Despite Parliamentary plotting, Tory MPs aren’t expecting to have to rush back to Westminster today, or indeed the first half of this week, senior government sources tell Guido. The expectation is that there will be more hot air in the commons, with no substantive votes without significant warning. Opposition MPs need to take over the order paper a whole day in advance in order to pass new legislation, giving Tories plenty of warning…

Labour for now seem to be sticking to their word of not tabling significant motions. Just one statement has been confirmed for 2:30, and there are no urgent questions. At this rate they could have just granted a short recess…

Meanwhile Parliament’s ever impartial speaker is taking the opportunity of Tories being away up north to hold a meeting of party leaders this afternoon, without Boris. Plenty of plotting going on but not much action. The combination of Bercow, Corbyn, Blackford, Swinson, Lucas, and Soubry sounds like the worst dinner party ever.

Ultimately there are limited options the opposition has in the Commons to cause chaos for Conservative Conference. See Guido’s handy list here…

• Urgent Questions – these have the advantage of forcing a particular minister back to Parliament, but
• Seizing the order paper in an emergency debate under Standing Order 24 – advantage of a comprehensive way to pass new law (votes at 16 was being touted), 24 hours notice gives plenty of warning to the Tories.
• Vote of No Confidence – nuclear option, being touted for Wednesday perhaps in an attempt to wreck Boris’ speech. Remains unclear whether the Government would want to win or lose it…