Post-G7 conversations are aflush with Brussels insiders surprising themselves by making far more positive noises towards the prospects of a new Brexit deal being agreed.

At the weekend, the Sunday Times reported that Chancellor Merkel was surprised to find Boris‘a proposals ‘credible’, and today the Wall Street Journal is reporting that the UK has made progress towards a deal over the last week, citing some EU officials who go as far as to say they are “impressed” with the UK’s new approach. Political risk research firm Eurasia Group have picked up similar noises, increasing their assessment of the chances of a deal by 50%, (albeit from just 10% to 15%).

The EU seems to be responding to the less nebulous approach of this new Government with regard to the end state of the UK’s relationship with the EU. Boris has been clear in his mind this has to look like the EU’s Canada ‘CETA’ deal, leaving the UK outside the EU’s customs union and regulatory orbit, free to diverge and cut its own regulatory path.

Managing Director Europe of Eurasia Group spoke with a senior EU official who went as far as to say “In terms of substance, it is clear he has dived into the issue far more than people think. The Boris that visited us was serious; the Prime Minister of a big country with a political problem he needs to resolve, well briefed, talking like a statesman.” Hardly Britain Trump…

Ultimately if opposition MPs succeed in ruling out No Deal, the very proposition that has enabled a re-engagement with the EU over the dead-in-the-water Withdrawal Agreement, the chances of a New Deal vanish. Because of this, nobody in the UK government that Guido has spoken to expects any concrete steps forward towards a New Deal until conference recess begins on 19th September…