Following the conviction of Tory MP Chris Davies and a subsequent recall petition, his constituency of Brecon & Radnorshire will face a by election. 10,005 constituents signed the petition, accounting for 19% of the constituency and almost double the 10% requirement. The Government commands a Commons majority of just five, and nationally the Tory party is polling in fourth place…

The seat was held by the Lib Dems from 1997 until 2015. The Tories currently have an 8,000 majority but with the Brexit Party splitting the vote and a classic Labour squeeze, the bookies have the Lib Dems heavily odds-on at 1/5. Tight Parliamentary arithmetic will become even tighter…