The latest YouGov polling of Tory members lays bare just how deep their commitment to Brexit now is. By a margin of over 30%, Tory members would still want Brexit to happen even if it meant Scotland or Northern Ireland leaving the UK or significant damage to the economy. A net 18% are still in favour of Brexit even if it destroys the Conservative (and Unionist) Party. The only scenario that Tory members wouldn’t countenance as the price of Brexit is Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister…

However, as LBC’s Theo Usherwood points out, the raw numbers don’t take into account the likelihood of each event taking place. Tory members are more likely to be blasé about the first four scenarios as they don’t see a realistic prospect of them happening either way. The threat from Corbyn and McDonnell is much more tangible…

It isn’t purely an ideological calculation, the members also think it is their best route to electoral success. Over 50% believe that not delivering Brexit would damage the Tories so badly they would never lead a government again – a huge 92% overall believe it would lead to defeat at the next election. Conversely, a clear majority believe that delivering Brexit – both with or without a deal – will win the Tories the next election. 68% say it would be unacceptable for the next leader to be a Remainer who won’t leave without a deal, bad luck Rory…