Where the Candidates Stand as MPs Go to Vote

This is the latest state of public declarations for each of the Tory leadership candidates according to Guido’s spreadsheet as MPs go to vote in the first round of the leadership contest. Polls close at noon…

75% of Tory MPs have now publicly declared, which means there are still 77 floating MPs up for grabs. Tory MPs are a notoriously treacherous electorate. It’s a secret ballot so how MPs vote often does not match up exactly with how MPs say they’ll vote…

Key things to watch out for:

  • Can Boris secure enough votes in the first round to clear the 105 MP mark outright – one third of Tory MPs which guarantees progression to the final two
  • Can Gove, Hunt or Javid establish themselves as the main challenger to Boris from the Remain wing of the party?
  • Losing many ERG big hitters to camp Boris was a major blow for Raab – can he get the momentum back or is the writing on the wall?
  • The bottom four are still some way short of the 16(+1) vote threshold to avoid elimination – can they squeak over the line?
  • Will they even get the 8 MPs who nominated them first time round or did they have to persuade some to lend them votes to spare their blushes?

We should have a result around 1 pm…


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