Guido understands that the six ChUKas who left Change UK yesterday are planning to join the Liberal Democrats after a ‘cooling off period’. Here Guido analyses their chance of holding their seats…
Heidi Allen – South Cambridgeshire:
- Verdict: Hold.
- Estimated EU Referendum vote: 61% Remain
- Once Andrew Lansley’s safe Tory seat, it has been trending steadily Lib Demmy as house prices push younger voters out of the neighbouring City of Cambridge. The Lib Dems took over the local council this year, and stormed the area in the European Elections…
- The only Problem is that the Liberal Democrats have already selected a Parliamentary Candidate for the constituency, a local Councillor called Ian Sollom. He’s been pounding the ground hard and might not be best pleased if Heidi swoops in to steal his plum position…
Chuka Umunna -Streatham:
- Verdict: Marginal.
- Estimated EU Referendum vote: 79% Remain
- Until the 1980s, Streatham was a safe Tory seat, but then London happened and Labour have held it ever since. In 2018 the Labour Party swept the board in Streatham’s council seats, although with strong challenges from the Greens and the Lib Dems in some wards. But in last month’s European Elections the Lib Dems enjoyed a more than 10% lead over Labour. It’s Remainer Central but Chuka has become a Momentum Hate Figure and they’ll throw everythign at it to dislodge him…
Gavin Shuker – Luton South:
- Verdict: Loss.
- Estimated EU Referendum vote: 55% Leave
- Surprisingly, the constituency was one of the few places Labour is projected to have won in the 2019 European Elections. The chance of a Lib Dem winning here is very low…
Luciana Berger – Liverpool Wavertree
- Verdict: Not a hope.
- Estimated EU Referendum vote: 65% Remain
- Labour won three times the Lib Dem vote, and ten times the Change UK vote share at the European Elections, despite the seat having voted to remain by almost two thirds. It’s the heart of the metropolitan North West. Anyone without a Labour Rosette is set to be wiped out…
Angela Smith – Penistone and Stocksbridge:
- Verdict: Bad loss.
- Estimated EU Referendum vote: 60% Leave.
- Labour came just 1,000 votes away from losing her seat to the Tories in 2017, with the Lib Dems in last place. In the European Elections, the Brexit Party won double the (second and third place) Lib Dem and Green votes put together. Labour, the Tories, and ChUK were fourth, fifth and sixth respectively. Brexitland.
Sarah Wollaston – Totnes
- Verdict: Loss.
- Estimated EU Referendum vote: 54% Leave
- Totness isn’t the heart of Brexitland but it the seat did voted to leave by a bigger margin than the country. The Brexit Party smashed it here at the European Elections, achieving double the vote of the 2nd place Lib Dems. It’s been Tory continuously since 1924 and demographics favour the Brexit backing parties. It would take an unprecedented Lib Dem surge, well about the high teen-low twenties for Sarah Wollaston, Liberal Democrat to hold her seat.
Even if they change their stripes to yellow the TIGgers are an endangered species…