Curtice: Not a Remain Backlash

The Twittersphere is awash with claims that the Lib Dems’ impressive exotic sprasm [sic] last night is down to a ‘Remain backlash’. That’s not what the data is saying. The Lib Dems are doing best where they had strong local organisation, and had been strong in the past (seats that span the Leave-Remain divide). Lib Dem sources in the North East tell Guido that they took pains to “completely avoid Brexit and focus on Labour’s record locally.”

“Where Vince cable came up on doorsteps, it was always residents mentioning him negatively. It’s still a hugely leave area and I think the UKIP surge demonstrates that.”

A Lib Dem activist told Guido “In Sunderland we avoided Brexit as much as possible and it may have hindered us in some wards.” Here’s an example of their hard hitting, heavily local campaign literature…

The anger with the main Parties might be because of Brexit, but where disgruntled voters are flooding to is far less determined by it…


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