New polling released today shows the Eurosceptic vote would be heavily split if European Elections were to be held, with Labour holding its vote together better than any other party.  More significantly than split votes, the poll found that just 37.8% of leave voters said they were certain to vote, compared to just 46.9% of Remain voters. An almost 10 point enthusiasm gap…

18% of Leave voters on the other hand rated their likelihood to vote at just 1/10, compared to just 6.8% of Remain voters saying the same. Leave voters are demoralised and are more likely to stay home than be enthused to give the establishment another kicking…

The enthusiasm gap means that even in terms of share of the vote, the Eurosceptics fall far behind the Europhiles, who combined make up more than 58% of those who say they will vote. The splitting of the vote makes the complexity of forecasting the outcome a fool’s errand. The challenge for the Brexit Party is immense…

For reference, Guido can provide how the Eurosceptic and Europhile parties fared in 2014. Back then the Eurosceptics achieved 55% of the vote, today’s poll shows that has fallen to 40%. Bullish Eurosceptics should be worried…