Punters Think Brexit Will Be Delayed

Punters on Smarkets are betting that the UK won’t leave the EU by March 29, 2019. The implied probability that it won’t happen on time is 80%.* Since May lost the meaningful vote punters and financial traders have been betting that Brexit will be softer and delayed. Guido thinks the odds are more evenly balanced…

*The probabilities don’t add up to 100% because of the over-round.


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Quote of the Day

Soros on the pan-European elections to the EU parliament…

“It is difficult to see how the pro-European parties can emerge victorious from the election in May unless they put Europe’s interests ahead of their own. One can still make a case for preserving the EU in order radically to reinvent it. But that would require a change of heart in the EU. The current leadership is reminiscent of the politburo when the Soviet Union collapsed – continuing to issue ukazes as if they were still relevant.”

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